5-15-10: Modified ATPG valuation to include the 73.2MMboe for Telemark and continued Non-Telemark & Non-Cheviot production to use the reserves (212MMboe proved and probable) and end the same estimated time as Telemark (March 2022). Assuming oil is $72/bbl for the remainder of 2010 and increasing $2/bbl every year, then ATPG is worth ~41/share (note Entrada and other items are excluded). Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

4-28-10: Based on the April 12th presentation (while there be sure to look at slide 12 - sums up ATPG as an investment), which lists 73 MMboe for Proved & Probable Reserves at Telemark on slide 17 and on Slide 19 it estimates Titan will be at Telemark for 12 years (30% of 40+ year life), I have added another tab (Telemark (using 73.2 MMboe)") to my valuation model. Using this information, I estimate that Telemark is worth approximately $10 per fully diluted share more than my current estimate of $46.74. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

4-18-10: I have an estimate for the value of Entrada, however, at this time that estimate is not part of ATPG's estimated value. (I plan to include after more info is provided by ATPG.) Assuming 55% of Callon's (CPE) estimated 56.6MMboe, 62% oil, 80 oil and 5 NG inperpetuity, 500mil in development costs, and production starting April 2012 Entrada adds $8.31 in value per fully diluted share (stock price is currently $22.73). Click here (updated 4-25-10 to include more CapEx detail - bottom of second tab). Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

4-13-10: I have adjusted my valuation of ATPG. The model accounts for the new notes and added a cash on hand graph. Click here (updated 4-14-10). I hope you will find it very insightful/helpful. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

4-12-10: In the 4-12-10 presentation more detail about Cheviot costs were included, so I adjusted the costs and shifted stratup from my optimistic July 2012 to Dec. 2012. An updated spreadsheet is provided. Note that even though the new presentation states Titan will be at Telemark for 12 years (30% of 40 year life), as opposed to my 89 month estimate, I make no adjustment. Well, I hope you will find it very insightful/helpful. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

4-10-10: In an attempt to put all the pieces together and show the importance of providing an asset value to Titan and Octabuoy after Telemark and Cheviot, respectively, I have been working on a sort of master spreadsheet. I hope you will find it very insightful/helpful. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors. Note that several modifications/corrections have been made to the prior version.

4-5-10: How much CF will Telemark generate? How does Telemark add to firm value? How long until $150mil in Telemark NPIs are paid off? Click here to see, estimates are based on just the first 47 month phase. Note that the Titan will have a 40 to 50 year life, but almost gets paidback in the first phase. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

4-2-10: How much CF will Cheviot generate? How will Cheviot add to firm value? Click here to see, estimates are based on the 60 month production profile. Note that the Octasbuoy will have a 40 to 50 year life. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors. The associated Yahoo MB post with more detail can be found at http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=te&bn=1612&tid=49029&mid=49029&tof=1&frt=1#49029.

3-29-10: With two assumptions IOC it becomes clear that IOC needs to appreciate 123% to reach fair value. 1) IOC wil lenter an agreement for three 9,000bcpd stripping facilities that will begin operations in 24 months, and 2) that IOC's NG, best case per GLJ report, is at least as valuable as Arrow's 2P CSG reserves (this reference relates to the 3-29-10 MS report). Click here to see the spreadsheet. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

3-28-10: Telemark should start production anytime. How does Telemark add to firm value? Click here to see a valuation of Telemark production for the first 47 month phase. Note that the Titan will have a 40 to 50 year life, but gets paidback in the first phase. Comments are welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

3-25-10: Click here to see a estimate of firm value for IOC using PV of Condenstate Stripping and value per MCF of NG using Arrow numbers. Comments welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

3-20-10: Click here to see an estimate of the share price of ATPG based on PV of FCF to equityholders. Comments welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

2-24-10: Click here to see a more detailed/updated PV of Condenstate Stripping and market value per MCF of NG. Comments welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

2-22-10: Click here to see PV of Condenstate Stripping and market value per MCF of NG. Comments welcome and please let me know if you find any errors.

2-16-10: Click here to see market value per mcf of NG for IOC based on "Resources Estimate for Gas and Condensate – Net to InterOil --As at December 31, 2009". Please let me know if you find any errors.

2-12-10: Click here to see estimate difference in production in combined prodcution profile on 2-5-10 compared to the base case extracted from that presentation plus the individual Telemark and Cheviot production profiles from 12-14-09 presentation. Also, thanks to azharm67 on Yahoo for catching the difference.

2-6-10: Click here to see revenue estimates based on the 2-5-10 production profile. I hope to make a more complete model than previously (since I have a lot more info), but I am afraid don't have the time. Anyway, I hope this is a good starting point for others (and if so, I would love to see your estimates). And if I get time I will post my estimates here later.

2-3-10: Click here to see estimation of ATPG CFs. Let me know if you find any errors. Also, I know including strip pricing, hedging, and taxes would improve the model, but the story is more than justified without such refinements.

1-29-10: (Hi Curt!) I added to my ATPG and IOC holdings. Great buying opportunities. Holdings: ATPG (long calls June and Sept. X = 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, and 30 - for spreadsheet to estimate production coming online from Telemark and Cheviot click here), AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), HUN (long calls March X = 5.00), IBKR (long calls March X = 15), IOC (long calls Feb. long X= 65 / short X = 75, March X=55, 60, 65, and 75, June X = 60, 65, 75, 105, and 115, Jan. 2011 X = 60), SNG, WFC (long calls  Jan. 2012, X = 20, 25, 35, and 40), and some cash. My current favorites (based on valuation) are ATPG, IOC, and SNG. Also, if you want to see an estimate of how much a commercial oil find would affect share price, click here. Please let me know if you find any errors. Thanks.

1-20-10: (Hi Curt!) Holdings: ATPG (long calls June and Sept. X = 12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, and 30 - for spreadsheet to estimate production coming online from Telemark and Cheviot click here), AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), DXE.V, HUN (long calls March X = 5.00), IBKR (long calls March X = 15), IOC (long calls Jan. X = 70 and 75, March X=55, 60, and 75, June X = 60, 75, 105, and 115, Jan. 2011 X = 60, and Jan. 2012 X=60, 70, and 85), SNG, WFC (long calls  Jan. 2012, X = 20, 25, 35, and 40), and some cash. My current favorites (based on valuation) are ATPG, IOC, and SNG. Also, if you want to see an estimate of how much a commercial oil find would affect share price, click here. Please let me know if you find any errors. Thanks.

1-6-10: (Hi Curt!) Holdings: ATPG (long calls June X = 12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, and 30 - for spreadsheet to estimate production coming online from Telemark and Cheviot click here), AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), DXE.V, HUN (long calls March X = 5.00), IBKR (long calls March X = 15), IOC (long calls Jan. X = 70 and 75, March X=55, 60, and 75, Jan. 2011 X = 60, and Jan. 2012 X=60, 70, and 85), SNG, WFC (long calls  Jan. 2012, X = 20 and 25), and very little cash. My current favorites (based on valuation) are ATPG, IOC, and SNG.

1-4-10: (Hi Curt!) Holdings: ATPG (long calls June X = 12.5, 15, 17.5, and 30 - for spreadsheet to estimate production coming online from Telemark and Cheviot click here), AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), DXE.V, HUN (long calls March X = 5.00), IBKR (including calls March X = 15), IOC (including calls Jan. X = 45 and 75, March X=40 and 75, Jan. 2011 X = 40, 60, and 65, and Jan. 2012 X=60 and 70), SNG, WFC (long calls  Jan. 2012, X = 20 and 25), and very little cash. My current favorites (based on valuation) are ATPG, IOC, and SNG.

12-26-09: (Hi Curt!) Holdings: AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), DXE.V, HUN (long calls March x = 5.00), IBKR (including calls March X = 15), IOC (including calls Jan. X = 45 and 75, March X=40 and 75, Jan. 2011 X = 40, 60, and 65, and Jan. 2012 X=60 and 70), SNG, WFC (long calls  Jan. 2012, X = 20 and 25), and very little cash. My current favorites (based on valuation) are IOC and SNG.

8-10-09: (Hi Curt!) Holdings: AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), BRKB,  HUN (inlcuding long calls Aug x = 2.50 and 5.00), IOC (including calls Dec. X=20 and 25, Jan. 2011 X = 35 and 40), SNG, WFC (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 12.50, 20, 22.5, 25, 30, and 35) and cash.

5-20-09: SNG valuation and merger ratio estimates. Download the Excel file (click here) and generate your own (see Legend and adjust inputs that you disagree with). Please let me know if you find any errors. I need to update holdings, but the quick of it is sold TCHC after disappointing earnings, bought PMT-UN.TO, sold EPE calls just before expiration, and have loaded up on SNG.

4-13-09: (Hi Curt!) Holdings: AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010, X= 7.50), BRKB, CRGN, EPE (long May calls X = 20), HUN (inlcuding long calls Aug x = 2.50, 5.00, and 7.50), SNG, TCHC, and WFC (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 12.50, 22.5, 25, 30, 35, and 40).

4-5-09: Shaved some off multiple positions and added to my SNG position.

4-3-09: (Hi Curt!) Holdings: AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010, X= 7.50), BRKB, CRGN, DLX, EPE (long May calls X = 20), HUN (inlcuding long calls Aug x = 2.50 and 5.00), SNG, TCHC, and WFC (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 12.50, 22.5, 25, 30, 35, and 40). Since the last post I added some more SNG, bought HUN calls Aug X= 5.00,  and traded BAC calls X= 6.00 (not my usual trade, but a nice week). Changes were funded by HUN dividends, selling CTX (which I still like, but other things were an even better value) and selling some HUN (however, for every 1 share of HUN sold I replaced it with an option to buy ~4.2 shares of HUN at 5 through August).

3-29-09: (Sorry, I have been so lax with my updates. Hi Curt!) Holdings: AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010, X= 7.50), BRKB, CRGN, CTX, DLX, EPE (long May calls X = 20), HUN (inlcuding long calls Aug x = 2.50), SNG, TCHC, and WFC (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 12.50, 22.5, 25, 30, 35, and 40). Since last post I traded some WFC and took a large position in WFC calls X= 12.50 (the higher strikes have hurt). I bought quite a few HUN Aug. calls X = 2.50 and  even exchanged some HUN stock for more Aug. calls X = 2.50. Bought CTX when it returned to the 5s again (should have bought more then). Bought some DLX a little early, but still a nice trade with the large move. After SNG's Block5(c) Assets went into receivership I bought into SNG (via TSX). Thanks to a friend's recommendation I bought some TCHC. In order of size of holding: HUN, WFC, then fairly even.

2-2-09: AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010), BRKB, CRGN, EPE (long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN, and WFC (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5, 25, 30, 35, and 40). Added WFC options (lowered the strike based on the large January decline in WFC), a little HUN, and a small position in CRGN - note these should have been updated earlier.

1-6-09: Hun Historical Gross Profit Margin. Excel 97-2003 file. We should see a drop to prior levels over the next few quarters. Please contact me if you find any errors.

1-1-09: HUN Pro Forma Income Statement. Excel 97-2003 file. Please contact me if you find any errors. Good luck and Happy New Year!

12-16-08: AXP (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 22.5), ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010), BRKB, EPE (long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN, and WFC (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 30, 35, and 40). I took a hit on HUN, but I have since quadrupled my HUN holdings.

12-9-08: ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010), BRKB, EPE (long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN, SGR, and WFC (long calls  Jan. 2011, X = 30, 35, and 40). Sold CTX, EPE, WFC (including my Jan. 2010 options) and cut my SGR holding in half. I hope to buy in again at lower prices and will be surprised if that does not occur.

12-2-08: ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010), BRKB, CTX, EPE (including long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN, PKX, SGR, and WFC (including long calls Jan. 2010 , X= 40 and Jan. 2011, X = 30, 35, and 40).

11-25-08: ACXM (including long calls Jan. 2010), BRKB, BTU, CTX, EPE (including long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN, PKX, SGR, and WFC (long calls Jan. 2010  and Jan. 2011, X = 35 and 40).

11-17-08: ACXM, BRKB, BTU, CTX, EPE (long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN (including long Nov calls X=20), PKX, SGR, and WFC (long calls Jan. 2010 and Jan. 2011, X = 40).

11-5-08: BRKB, BTU, CTX, EPE (including long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN (including long Nov calls X=20), PKX, SGR, and WFC (long calls Jan. 2010 and Jan. 2011, X = 40).

11-3-08: BRKB, BTU, CTX, EPE (including long May calls X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN (including short Nov calls X = 10 offset by long Nov calls X=20), PKX, SGR, and WFC (long calls Jan. 2010 and Jan. 2011, X = 40).

10-28-08: BRKB, BTU, CTX, EPE (including long May calls, X = 20, and short May puts X = 17.50), HUN, PKX, SGR, and WFC (long calls Jan. 2010 and Jan. 2011, X = 40).

10-10-08: BRKB, AIB, EPE, HUN, and WFC (including long calls Jan. 2010, X = 40).